ACUS11 KWNS 182124
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182123=20
TXZ000-182330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0816
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

Areas affected...portions of southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 182123Z - 182330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to briefly severe thunderstorms producing strong
gusts and hail may persist another 1-2 hours before weakening.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong to briefly severe thunderstorms
have developed in low-level confluence amid moderate instability
late this afternoon. Vertical shear is very weak across the area and
will remain so through the evening. This activity will shift
generally east very slowly, within a narrow axis of instability
before boundary-layer inhibition increases. Modestly steep midlevel
lapse rates may support marginally severe hail, while a well-mixed boundary-layer contributing to steep low-level lapse rates, and weak
low-level flow will foster strong outflow winds. Convective
intensity should diminish this evening and with eastward extent.=20

Further south, addition convection has developed west of the Rio
Grande across northeast Mexico. This activity should weaken as it
approaches the river and perhaps crosses into Texas. However, poor
vertical shear and little forcing for ascent to maintain any organization/stronger intensity should preclude much severe
potential.

..Leitman/Smith.. 05/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7lHq8Y5OC3Vo9YQOSNyXyYe0GVbZhOi4XDEtmY9W433t-5g_jsVBOoIwrANpN7--Zhu2Yi_7Y= K5VUyyJIBhWCnE2BCg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 29710211 32790130 32980060 32890002 32529978 31869998
31410007 28370041 29410138 29710211=20


=3D =3D =3D
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