ACUS11 KWNS 172344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172344=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-180115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0811
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023

Areas affected...Parts of southwestern NE...far northeastern
CO...and far northwestern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 172344Z - 180115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts possible
during the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...An organized storm cluster is tracking slowly southward
across far southwestern NE, with a risk of large hail and damaging
winds. Latest VWP data shows strengthening northwesterly flow aloft
associated with an approaching midlevel impulse (evident in water
vapor imagery). The strengthening flow aloft atop weak low-level
southerlies is contributing to around 30-40 kt of effective shear.
This, combined with sufficient surface-based pre-convective
instability, should support the maintenance of organized storms
capable of isolated large hail and locally severe gusts during the
next hour or two.

..Weinman/Bunting.. 05/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6mKRYQtkMt7i8m53o0ekzl5sFv4B5LEMTjgeVlSD5kuQOyyasM3VM425B4T8KHn4dliKl3RK4= sW4-lKxwvMPyQ0pqVI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 40400214 40580184 40660159 40700128 40560111 40290098
40010092 39720110 39520131 39420163 39490209 39700226
40140224 40400214=20


=3D =3D =3D
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