ACUS11 KWNS 161858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161857=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-162100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0803
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023

Areas affected...Central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 161857Z - 162100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will pose a severe
wind/hail threat this afternoon across the central High Plains. This
threat is expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows deepening cumulus and
a few lightning strikes across southeast WY into northeast CO ahead
of a weak mid-level perturbation. Dewpoints across this region are
falling through the low 50s into the upper 40s, indicative of
diurnal mixing and erosion of mixed-layer inhibition. This trend
will continue with robust/sustained convective initiation likely
within the next 1-2 hours. Although buoyancy and deep-layer shear
are somewhat marginal (MLCAPE values approaching 500 J/kg and
effective bulk shear near 20-30 knots respectively), 25-30 knot
storm-relative winds in the 0-3 km layer will likely support some
cold pool balance/organization with more intense cells and clusters.
This, coupled with lapse rates through this layer approaching 9
C/km, will support the potential for strong to severe outflow winds.
Cells in closer proximity to the mid-level shortwave perturbation
(recently noted over northwest NE in water-vapor imagery) will
likely experience augmented mid-level flow and may take on periods
of supercellular characteristics with an attendant severe hail risk.
In general, weak forcing for ascent is expected to limit storm
coverage and the overall severe threat; watch issuance is not
anticipated.

..Moore/Leitman.. 05/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8jIjyvbGuynyi5IaCLcGCnXaPF0xKehE2IcmKDQ2eHcQd1PAGnYh03ulQvkrN0Uc-2HJRctoS= zyjVuZk5wFXX2qEuYc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 38430300 38770353 41270492 41730516 42280534 42680534
42890517 43290463 43360401 43220332 42550262 39840062
39390060 38960066 38510092 38240171 38230239 38430300=20


=3D =3D =3D
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