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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0801

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 16 17:14:39 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 161714
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161714=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-161915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0801
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1214 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi to western Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 161714Z - 161915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce sporadic
    damaging winds through the afternoon across eastern Mississippi into
    western and central Alabama. Watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, isolated thunderstorms have
    developed within a pocket of warm (mid 80s) surface temperatures
    where low-level parcels are reaching their convective temperatures
    and inhibition is negligible. Recent RAP analyses estimate MLCAPE
    values are approaching 1500 J/kg over eastern MS/western AL, but
    deep-layer shear appears very limited given 20-25 knots of flow in
    the 6-8 km layer. Consequently, storm modes will remain fairly
    disorganized as convection migrates east/northeast towards western
    and central AL though the afternoon. However, continued daytime
    heating will allow dewpoint depressions to climb to 15-20 F with
    PWAT values on the order of 1.75 inches. These thermodynamic
    characteristics should be conducive for wet downbursts capable of
    sporadic damaging winds, and perhaps marginally severe hail with the
    more intense updraft pulses. Latest runs of the HRRR support this
    idea with a transient signal for 40-45 knot gusts over east MS/AL
    this afternoon. Given the localized and transient nature of the
    threat, watch issuance is not expected.

    ..Moore/Leitman.. 05/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_fN1F2YViFoTbDOJESaCxtck1hBCI2ecQCdfJwgBJ6j86MThWXNs1_vy5AQhNDavl5ZbtSqXr= mpMVFJByt_R4nol4Gc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

    LAT...LON 32118958 32468939 33008879 33648795 34068703 34048637
    33928586 33558562 33138559 32658571 32248590 31968610
    31758667 31728753 31708822 31688890 31748922 31838950
    32118958=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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