ACUS11 KWNS 152203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152202=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-160000-
Mesoscale Discussion 0799
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023
Areas affected...Southeast MO...southwest KY...and western TN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 152202Z - 160000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A couple instances of large hail and damaging gusts are
possible during the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier convection over portions of
southeast MO into western TN, diurnal heating (upper 80s/lower 90s temperatures) has resulted in airmass recovery -- where
boundary-layer dewpoints are in the lower 70s. As additional
thunderstorms move into this corridor of moderate surface-based
instability this afternoon/early evening, backed surface winds
(albeit weak) beneath 25-30 kt of midlevel westerly flow will
support briefly organized clusters (and transient supercell
structures). Primary concerns with this activity will be isolated
large hail and locally damaging gusts.
..Weinman.. 05/15/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-5kmlEEUQL2xLFbVdWv6mqzd_wgkL4_Z8tYmIgLAWuQ_VlsBJUTF1ADqGaYVBRzR8GMAOwFtr= vHvcjT3auygaknzs0o$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 37118923 36828867 36638840 36328825 35918831 35728851
35568876 35468902 35438947 35538993 36119044 36679054
37049047 37209025 37288983 37118923=20
=3D =3D =3D
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