• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0799

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 15 22:03:30 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 152203
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152202=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-160000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0799
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0502 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast MO...southwest KY...and western TN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 152202Z - 160000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple instances of large hail and damaging gusts are
    possible during the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier convection over portions of
    southeast MO into western TN, diurnal heating (upper 80s/lower 90s temperatures) has resulted in airmass recovery -- where
    boundary-layer dewpoints are in the lower 70s. As additional
    thunderstorms move into this corridor of moderate surface-based
    instability this afternoon/early evening, backed surface winds
    (albeit weak) beneath 25-30 kt of midlevel westerly flow will
    support briefly organized clusters (and transient supercell
    structures). Primary concerns with this activity will be isolated
    large hail and locally damaging gusts.

    ..Weinman.. 05/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-5kmlEEUQL2xLFbVdWv6mqzd_wgkL4_Z8tYmIgLAWuQ_VlsBJUTF1ADqGaYVBRzR8GMAOwFtr= vHvcjT3auygaknzs0o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 37118923 36828867 36638840 36328825 35918831 35728851
    35568876 35468902 35438947 35538993 36119044 36679054
    37049047 37209025 37288983 37118923=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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