ACUS11 KWNS 141730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141730=20
TXZ000-142000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0793
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141730Z - 142000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters are expected to intensify through
the afternoon and will pose a threat for sporadic damaging winds
across east Texas. Watch issuance is not expected given the
relatively modest kinematic environment.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm cluster has been tracked in regional
radar mosaics over the past few hours north of the Houston, TX area.
This activity is largely being driven by ascent in the vicinity of
an MCV that is slowly progressing northward towards southern OK.
Over the past 30-60 minutes, GOES IR imagery has shown steadily
cooling cloud top temperatures, and velocity data from KHGX reveals
some outflow consolidation on the northern periphery of the cluster.
These trends suggest that intensification is ongoing, likely in
response to diurnal warming/destabilization.=20

Temperatures climbing into the low/mid 80s downstream across east TX
have eroded any lingering mixed-layer inhibition and allowed MLCAPE
to approach 2000 J/kg faster than depicted by morning guidance.
Mid-level winds decrease from 35 knots to around 20 knots away from
the MCV, which will limit the potential for robust, long-lived storm organization. However, some form of semi-organized clustering with
an attendant damaging wind threat is expected across east TX this
afternoon given mesoscale ascent and modest deep-layer shear near
the MCV coupled with the moderately buoyant environment. Recent
hi-res and machine learning guidance suggests this threat will
increase through the afternoon, peaking between 21-00 UTC across
northeast TX during the diurnal thermal maximum.

..Moore/Guyer.. 05/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!65cCe2VSehjBbX10ETQ2fggesTtRhXOpq1L325LOqhbTFs3d3OboK_EyY93DbzUjn0871eg0E= _7oM1NV5SV_q3bN_Wg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 30699551 32889666 33439646 33599609 33719560 33559492
33299455 30469439 30099445 29889461 29829490 29979510
30309529 30699551=20


=3D =3D =3D
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