• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0762

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 11 16:58:52 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 111658
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111658=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-111930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0762
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1158 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

    Areas affected...much of western Kansas and small parts of bordering
    states

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 111658Z - 111930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in intensity and coverage
    throughout the day from eastern Colorado arcing southeastward across
    western and central Kansas. Large hail is likely, with a few
    tornadoes and damaging gusts possible as well.

    DISCUSSION...Visible imagery show favorable boundary layer
    conditioning as storms from eastern CO into western KS begin to
    intensity. Surface heating will continue to steepen lapse rates and
    increase instability over a wide area, from NE southward across KS.
    Meanwhile, low-level winds are strengthening across the TX/OK
    Panhandles into southwest KS, which will enhance convergence and
    instability into southwest KS soon.=20

    Deep-layer easterlies within the lowest 2-3 km with strengthening southwesterlies aloft will favor supercells. While low-level SRH may
    not be particularly strong due to the entrenched easterlies in the
    low levels, it will be sufficient given cooling aloft and favorable
    time of day. In addition, these hodographs should strongly favor
    damaging hail with forward-tilting storms.

    ..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7v3GN0V6MZ0XOEztp7YjKSl-jFPtS_W8206SQv_WHwCNAj0kxt6anxBcho2hxff6wbiWpbZrt= YpUtcvl1BNYUm34XJ8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

    LAT...LON 37159859 36979898 36839970 36800032 37030061 37330085
    37790136 38100161 38500215 38800241 39210234 39610220
    39900184 40080130 40140031 40069991 39699940 38939880
    38449858 38239851 37739846 37339846 37159859=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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