• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0760

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 11 03:31:16 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 110331
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110330=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-110530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0760
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1030 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

    Areas affected...TX South Plains...TX Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 110330Z - 110530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated/localized severe threat will probably continue
    into the early overnight, but the need for a new severe thunderstorm
    watch is uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...Radar/satellite mosaic shows a north-south cluster of thunderstorms near the dryline in the vicinity of the TX-NM border.=20 Strengthening low-level southeasterlies via an intensifying High
    Plains LLJ will aid in moisture advection. Despite increasing CINH, strengthening large-scale ascent will at least favor a continuation
    of thunderstorm activity through midnight. Veering and
    strengthening flow with height has resulted in a wind profile
    supporting updraft organization/rotation. It seems likely several
    strong to locally severe thunderstorms will continue over the South
    Plains and into the TX Panhandle and pose some risk for marginally
    severe hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter) and perhaps isolated
    severe gusts. The coverage/magnitude of the severe risk remains
    uncertain and the need for an additional severe thunderstorm watch
    into the late night hours is in question.

    ..Smith/Thompson.. 05/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7lVM87DtPXWVM3fmrsKXOcloKqwMnxOifSXVdMXtV0O8BtUyVJ4rqz9-x5Gtc1ciMcN20oLTT= w8I44xwQCjoozWj7CM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 33360338 34180332 35850257 36470185 36270120 35940104
    33250224 33120292 33360338=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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