• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0739

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 9 15:02:29 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 091502
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091502=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-091630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0739
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1002 AM CDT Tue May 09 2023

    Areas affected...Northern/central KS into extreme south-central NE

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203...

    Valid 091502Z - 091630Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe/damaging wind gusts is expected to
    increase later this morning, along with a continued risk of large
    hail. Downstream watch issuance is likely before 11 AM CDT.

    DISCUSSION...Gradual upscale growth of intense elevated convection
    has been noted this morning across far south-central NE into
    northwest KS, within a favorable environment characterized by MUCAPE
    of 1000-2000 J/kg, and effective shear of 35-45 kt. Full insolation
    downstream will allow for removal of MLCINH along/south of this
    developing MCS, with a transition to more of a surface-based system
    expected late this morning into this afternoon.=20

    Embedded supercells will remain possible with this cluster as it
    moves east-southeastward along the instability gradient, with steep
    midlevel lapse rates supporting a hail threat, including some
    potential for isolated very large hail. The threat for severe gusts
    will also increase as the cold pool matures and the downstream
    environment becomes increasingly favorable for surface-based
    convection. An embedded brief tornado or two also cannot be ruled
    out with stronger embedded supercells and/or more transient
    QLCS-related circulations, especially as surface-based buoyancy
    increases with time.=20

    The severe threat will eventually extend downstream of WW 203 late
    this morning into this afternoon, and downstream watch issuance is
    likely into parts of central/eastern KS and far southeast NE by 11
    AM CDT.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4ZPronMAoBCNDXxqkiKziYF8NrkA3uCgUIVIuiXTIGrhcCfIqLn3wrBDsN9r7CDnWGLk_BBn-= NheMCNFkctMfwoKCig$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 40319907 40129724 39789612 38949581 38499598 38179677
    38409790 38669899 39129989 39500055 39899969 40319907=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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