• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0723

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 8 01:26:14 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 080126
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080125=20
    TXZ000-080330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0723
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0825 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023

    Areas affected...northwest into north TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 197...

    Valid 080125Z - 080330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 197
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts will become the
    primary severe hazard into the mid evening hours as thunderstorm
    updrafts become less robust. Peak gusts with the more intense
    downdrafts may range 60-80 mph.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms over northwest into north TX
    will continue to slowly weaken in overall updraft intensity but the
    wind hazard may increase into the mid evening before diminishing by
    the late evening. 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on southern Great
    Plains 7pm CDT raobs showed 8.0 to 8.5 deg C/km in association with
    an EML. Dry mid-level air and the lapse rates will support strong
    evaporative potential and the possibility for severe gusts with the
    stronger downdraft pulses. A 50-kt gust was recently observed at
    Wichita Falls/Shepard AFB at 748pm somewhat removed from a stronger thunderstorm core. A few of the more intense gusts may exhibit
    characteristics of convection from both heat bursts and active
    thunderstorms. Expecting at least an isolated risk for severe gusts
    to continue into the mid evening beyond the expiration of severe
    thunderstorm watch 197 (9pm).

    ..Smith.. 05/08/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-gFArSlfpgX-PM2T3Z0IDFP35eKzcqMXtqZ2eEOceejyL07UPw5KHW_DRjxYWY3op_Wb5mmDY= 0gCX3empTKf7Xe5OOs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 33859976 33849822 33659775 33179762 32579873 31909949
    31970027 32340098 33140088 33859976=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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