• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0696

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 7 02:37:34 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 070237
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070237=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-070330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0696
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0937 PM CDT Sat May 06 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southeastern Nebraska and far
    northeastern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 070237Z - 070330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A persistent storm across portions of southeastern NE may
    continue to pose a risk for large hail for a few more hours.
    Uncertainty on the storm longevity lends low confidence to the need
    for a weather watch.

    DISCUSSION...As of 0225 UTC regional radar analysis showed a severe
    storm across portions of Thayer and Fillmore counties in NE. Thus
    far, this storm has persisted on a narrow thetaE/buoyancy maximum
    along a surface front laying across southern NE. Around 1500-2000
    J/kg of MUCAPE and 40-45kt of bulk shear may continue to support
    storm organization and an attendant risk for large hail as it tracks
    eastward along the boundary. It is unclear how long this may
    continue with the loss of diurnal heating and increasing MLCINH
    noted on SPC mesoanalysis with eastward extent. Given the
    uncertainty a weather watch is unlikely, though some severe risk may
    persist for a few more hours into parts of southeastern NE and
    extreme northeastern KS.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/07/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!64FzkKAeO8yZzCxB0tJxQCBMgH2ccyEoZEWWy7VD7GoUPp7nRTmAhZ708vlwFlAl6yPVF0oSB= aFtGLhnwvqTvAgPjQw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

    LAT...LON 39799605 39789672 39929711 40089766 40379761 40519740
    40529718 40459623 40359604 40229586 40049583 39909590
    39799605=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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