• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0680

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 5 18:52:20 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 051852
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051851=20
    COZ000-WYZ000-052045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0680
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0151 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023

    Areas affected...eastern WY...far north-central CO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 051851Z - 052045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely to
    develop and intensify through the mid-late afternoon. Isolated
    large hail and severe gusts are the primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows developing
    thunderstorms near the I-25 corridor in southeast WY and other
    deepening convection over the CO Front Range. Relatively moist
    upslope flow into the Cheyenne Ridge is maintaining 40s dewpoints
    into Weld Co., CO and from the NE Panhandle into far eastern WY.=20
    Strong surface heating will contribute to weak buoyancy with upwards
    of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE over eastern WY. Although the mid to
    upper-level ridge extends from KS northwestward into eastern WY, the
    magnitude of moisture coupled with upslope flow will lead to at
    least isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing by
    mid-late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will remain limited and only
    favor multicellular storm modes, but the very steep low to mid-level
    lapse rates will promote both hail growth and potential severe gusts
    with the stronger cores.

    ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/05/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7N-WqY-GNzpG_uyaDmRmpgbz3UvL1J01pjMF_A-X1iV408l69WkR3BrSMRmm5LBFSKkmOk79j= mE8Grro-I9msl890aU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 44150585 44660587 44960551 44810503 43710430 42550409
    40550415 40400457 40490503 40800518 42660514 43420543
    44150585=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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