• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0674

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 4 19:48:38 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 041948
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041948=20
    TXZ000-042215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0674
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0248 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023

    Areas affected...parts of west-central Texas to the middle Rio
    Grande Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 041948Z - 042215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms producing large hail will
    be possible from late this afternoon into the evening.

    DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows a CU field near a dryline
    extending from northwest TX southwestward toward the Rio Grande.
    Winds have veered to west/southwest behind the dryline, with
    temperatures currently into the mid 80s F. East of the dryline,
    cirrus has generally thinned, with areas of heating in the moist air
    mass. A moisture gradient does exist from central into southwest
    TX, and is not expected to move much in the near term.

    Continued heating as well as deepening of the moist boundary layer
    ahead of the dryline may yield several storms by late afternoon,
    perhaps aided by a weak midlevel feature moving across southwestern
    TX. Little else will be present to support a more organized severe
    threat, but trends will be monitored for signs of increasing severe
    storm coverage through early evening. Modest instability and
    favorably long hodographs should favor mainly hail.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 05/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7F_OtK63pH48SD6cWAkAXnGq5YDb1_rycZAYeCJyS-qGi84b6uI21qh21dKR3BBO4vEIXzP7J= eE3473D1o_yVG6xeR8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29690251 30640192 31520135 32160107 32710093 32910055
    32959967 32399919 31679921 30779949 29760017 29140079
    29470120 29700143 29780223 29690251=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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