• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0649

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 28 19:21:19 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 281921
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281920=20
    VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-282045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0649
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0220 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023

    Areas affected...portions of far southeast Ohio...far eastern Kentucky...western West Virginia...far western Virginia...extreme
    northeast Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 281920Z - 282045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts/instances of hail may accompany
    the stronger storms this afternoon. The severe threat should remain
    isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Visible Satellite and MRMS mosaic radar data show a
    gradual increase in the intensity and coverage of low-topped
    thunderstorms over the eastern OH Valley into the central
    Appalachians. Adequate surface heating to the south and west of a
    wedge of cool air over the central Appalachians (and points north)
    is contributing to marginal buoyancy (over 500 J/kg MLCAPE per 18Z mesoanalysis). Given the presence of modest speed shear in the
    850-500 mb layer, a few of the stronger storms may become organized
    and intense enough to produce a couple instances of damaging gusts
    or hail in areas of locally greater heating/buoyancy. Since the
    overall severe threat is expected to remain isolated, a WW issuance
    is not expected.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 04/28/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_y8DOJgRIXYaI6wOIEn1wdmwsfqv4egSgmQxaKN0Hwbnal-_Fexgh55vl1cPAz5XejUMVPnSf= JUrncfc1eD-_xOQ4Dw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...

    LAT...LON 37048293 38278358 39128340 39768283 39838230 39348152
    38648127 37618135 36658134 36388156 36348236 37048293=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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