• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0638

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 27 17:57:12 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 271757
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271756=20
    FLZ000-272000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0638
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1256 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

    Areas affected...central portion of the FL Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174...

    Valid 271756Z - 272000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for large to very large hail (1-3 inches in
    diameter) and damaging gusts will likely accompany a supercell as it
    moves east-northeast across the central part of the FL Panhandle
    through 3-4pm EDT. A brief tornado is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived discrete supercell has recently moved
    ashore into the greater Panama City, FL vicinity from the shelf
    waters in a favorable environment for organized storms. The KEVX
    VAD data shows a favorable hodograph for storm-scale rotation but
    KTLH 88D VAD data is noticeably weaker in 2-4 km flow (10 kt
    weaker). Nonetheless, moderate buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE)
    with speed shear in the mid to upper levels, are combining to
    support an environment favorable for large to very large hail.=20
    Damaging gusts may also occur with with the precip-laden RFD as the
    storm moves east-northeast over the next several hours.

    ..Smith.. 04/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_MXtZ-lwTOjF8JDLcfB8Dk95ubSSAlbZ4MCuk0-lmoOF7OQOaMJrH2HpDq911Kgp9bKXS5Ld9= IkStHegPROfS3756tM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30398579 30628471 30548450 30358458 30178577 30198593
    30398579=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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