• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0617

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 26 02:28:57 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 260228
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260228=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-260400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0617
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0928 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

    Areas affected...TX Panhandle into northwest TX/far southwest OK

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166...167...

    Valid 260228Z - 260400Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166, 167
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and
    possibly a tornado continues, with some threat spreading
    southeastward with time.

    DISCUSSION...Three widely spaced supercells are ongoing at 0215 UTC
    from the TX South Plains into the Big Country region, with the cells
    northeast of Lubbock and San Angelo occasionally producing very
    large hail. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, effective shear of 40-50 kt,
    and favorable storm mode will continue to support a very large hail
    threat in the short term, with localized severe gusts also possible.
    A continued increase in low-level flow/shear has been noted in the
    KLBB and KDYX VWPs, and a tornado cannot be ruled out with any of
    these cells.=20

    Increasing MLCINH will likely lead to a weakening trend with these
    cells later tonight. Increasing low-level warm advection may support
    elevated storm development farther east into western north TX and
    southwest OK, with some hail potential. However, at this time,
    downstream watch issuance is considered unlikely, though local
    extensions to WW 166 and 167 may be needed depending on the
    longevity of the ongoing supercells.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 04/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9bMyNOXGoNce5Y0GsYX17FGqX1E-BJiHoX30BZKYhnmYnm-UFJraVkpPqwc9ERvWKU8LUhCAk= fR6p-AAK5rzUEVLfHE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 33970154 34330103 34579967 34449940 33489898 32399868
    31689895 31519999 32550108 33500136 33620141 33970154=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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